Reports of February meeting of FED shared by officials on their web site,reports have many data it is usual but away some points look vital in this case.
Inflation-Workforce Activity-International Issues
Inflation is a critic datum for FED,they try to arrive target point (%2,0).Now USA inflation is %1,9.FOMC members think,end of this year %2,0 target inflation will settle.
Although good data (December,January),FED told " We will be patient for hiking rates".
Trade Wars (USA-CHINA)
FOMC members suppose,slowing economy of China can be risk for USA,EU.President Trump told yesterday,"We are near a dealing between China"If it happens we can not talk current deficit problem,Yuan effect or like that things end of 2020.
According to FED report of 22 February Meeting,FOMC members had a debate for treasury bonds,they had some reasons why volatility was so high.They thought main reason was trade wars effects.
My personal idea is still valid,"President Trump said why FED is hiking interest rates?,They should stop and they should end reducing of portfolios (balance sheet normalization).After this incident USA Economy looks having some problems on 10 and 2 years treasury,stock markets (Dow Jones,Nasdaq,S &P 500).
Investors did not like tone of Trump against FED,and Powell.However,after meeting in White House markets look stabilize and normal.
Probably,China and USA will have a peace,after this case,we will follow relationship between EU and USA.EU car producers accept USA tarrifs.
All of things are in same equation with ECB,which have no any buying QE program.Markets wait a hiking rates in 2019 summer by ECB.
In terms of USA perspective,developing economies do not look well,Summary of it,they tell having slowing of growth of China is not good for Euro Area,they mean trading wars with China.
Tarrifs are affected with negatively to China and trading partners of China. Some anecdotes were told about Latin American Countries for political issues.
Summary of this meeting by my side
Summary of this meeting by my side
Political issues are so complicated and it is getting infinite by global economy.Venezueala can be second Syria or not we will see,by any negative step can be reason hiking petrol prices.
Trump have deal with EU,China.It means trading wars will stop until 2020.
Different cases are still present,Syria,Iran,Sudan,Venezuela.
If FED does not suppose having a problem,by pressure of inflation,we can see again hawkish FED.