Perspective of global economy

December,cold days in China.What about economic development or issues? In terms of my perspective Turkish Economy is not going to well,shortage loop goes on ,if you can  create only for establishing new homes ,apartments you do not earn anything.Society & life & every sectors.Look youth unemployment rate %26 ? by Tuik,.1 Usd is equal to 6,00 lira,it means we will see new wage increase in many products,you import Sugar from Russia but Russia has not a cold climate? Somethings are not true for economy,agriculture & technology & human power & financial things & health system are part of economic society.By these things some countries become developed countries.lnnovation should start  for hiking your citizens life quality.Another things in global market......Brexit looks ok.All of central banks cut off interest rates,their aims are to hike selling home ,cars in their countries.Peace between China and Usa are good news.Tarrifs & custom taxes effect badly both economies.Right now USA 2 years and 10 years horizontal curve look stabil,it means no recession point.Middle East & Mediterranean Sea are complicated,Syria,Libia....Especially I had mentioned this thing for a long time ago.Turkey can have new immigrants 100,000 (Idlib).

Complicated Sight

Dark Sea

New xinqqi;

New Perspective

I write this article in my new university,I had told you l will learn Hanyu in China.Nowadays global economy is slowing down actually we saw first sign of global recession in ons gold hiking.Many central banks cut off interest rates and publish new QE or bond program for raising consuming.In USA,Powell cut interest rates in last month with 2 times.Trade wars and tariffs do not work well although China and USA have no any deal yet. 1 USD is equal to 7,15 Rmb it is good for China they are exporter country but away current deficit of USA is still hiking.On the other side Trump has hard days new investigation about Ukraine,Biden.......... Stock Markets search new paths for gaining. What about Turkey? Yesterday Tuik (Turkish Statistic Community) shared inflation report after 2,5 years we have %9 near inflation.ls it real ? If it is real why only in 5 months electric prices raised in 2 times with %15?ln rationality they are opposite meanings.lf inflation drops your prices should be dropped if you do not do that you can have deflation.What markets tell ? According to them 1 usd is equal to 5,70 lira.TCMB cuts interest rates and they try to resurrect trade and consuming (home and car sales).The main point all of developing and develop economies cut interest rates. In coming soon recession of world economy will be effected negatively.Credit loans,PMI data are not fine all of them less than 50 which means a perfect storm is so near. New reports will explain tomorrow USA non agricultural data &unemployment rate.About Iran and Saudi Arabia (Aramco and Yemen),Syria Region,Brexit,and other some political issues should follow.Long positions in this term can not be logical.

Summer Break for F1

Summer break....It can be last article for holiday.Germany Grand Prix was hard for Ferrari again.After Hungary we saw many things,reds are not powerful,last year Ferrari was a great rival against silver arrows.

In this year,Seb and Leclerc are not competitive,also car is so weak.Honda created magnificient engine for Redbulls,after Mclaren adventure,seriously Honda challenges big producers Mercedes and Ferrari.

2 Wins......Great engine & great belief.

Ferrari is still has no any winnings.Canada and Austria,they were so closed for winning the races.

New upgrade packages do not present any positive direction for Ferrari.Engine &downforce & tyres.

On the other side,Pirelli creates 3 different type tyres Medium,Soft,and Hard.Ferrari SF-90 does not like hard and medium in long bend circuits like Suzuka ,Melbourne,Baku,Barcelona,Hungary.

Honda and Mclaren had signed in 2015.3 years were terrible time for both of sides.Last year Honda produced engines only for Toro Rosso other Redbull B team,which had great scores and points.After this successing Redbull dealt with Honda,its ex engine producer was Renault.

Ferrari is still behind Mercedes and in this year behind of Honda.This is not acceptable picture for reds.In 2017-2018 seasons they tried to fight with Mercedes for having fame and titles but away new packages and powerful engine belong to Mercedes.

Hybrid technology with F1 Cars have been racing since 2014,and tyres features are vital issues for all of the producers,we talk about 1000 HP or over engines.Last two years,Pirelli presented Ultra Soft-Soft-Super Soft,Soft,Medium and Hard tyres for every different circuit.

End of this year,Mercedes is favourite by all of the authorities,therefore Honda should not humiliate by others seriously they have great engine and packages.

Effect and Reaction

Destroy your home then pray, for establishing nice things.

https://vimeo.com/340292407?ref=fb-share&1&fbclid=IwAR2PwySV9UQFTjneko8JAweRnUW6ie7qeKO6FgNcIEqNuVjvnu5BAvkuP5I

Global warming effects,are getting to high points,inevitable conclusions will be possible in coming soon,

Animals and plants are our sources for having a life,but away if you destroy your home,how and why do you need a future?

Limited politicians and bosses can not control you,your destiny belongs you,it is not their gifts and on the other hand,you are not a slave or slave community.

Currently, generations are not aware of these things,economy & nature & sources & wars & financial system & law & justice & human rights & animal rights & nature are on the same scale.It is not chess,lifes are not games.

These problems are not todays problems,for a long time developing technology and having new devices did not solve any problems,opposite consequences are valid.

Luxury cars & homes & phones & bags have no any meanings.

Strange times,

Increasing fatal diseases,

and talk about peace and economical equality.

Some countries spend ,unemployment insurance salary for their unnecessary things,according to my experience,in short terms,these countries will have  dark days.

All of things are connected with each others.

Health,

Justice,

Financial System,

Economy,

Law,

Human rights,

Animal rights,

Nature,

Welcome to strangers

Yes,todays head of article is "Welcome to strangers",true things are getting fault by these people,if you do not lie in anywhere,probably you can not find any friends in any communities.

Lies are bigger than honesty,

thiefs are much more valuable than honest workers,

whereas,we live in strangers world ,for instance you can be normal ,you think you are ? 

Look at your side,with carefully your colleagues,friends,in bus,metro,mall.Everywhere is not getting darkness ?

In this list,I do not tell anything about wars yet.

Iraq,

Libia,

Syria,

Venezuela,

Ukraine,

Now Iran ?

We debated this object many times,disintegrate everywhere and then talk about peace and love.Do not forget somethings,when you are sitting on your chairs,one day you can have same troubles.

In 21.century we are still talking about wars,genocides,rapes if they are normal,I guess we should change our name,not humankind it has to be primitive bacterias.

Others,have economical woefully fightings,high inflations,low salaries,and long  time working hours until grave yards.

By upper steps,next generations will not have any rights.severance payings can not be or not fund for workers in many countries.

Health system is already is a virus.

Modern Romen rules are present,and they are permanent,civil rules and constitutions do not apply,however all of them are  valid in terms of my perspective.

Words,sentences have no any meanings for jerks,dumbs and deafs.My ideas are true to live in  a nice planet.

Future is on our hands,rules,laws should be same for everyone.No any distinction.

Be transparent

Have dreams,some of people talk about granting and poverites,but away his/her worst car is Mercedes S Maybach.

They are so poor and misery,you can believe them,it is your choice.Think how many jerks live on this planet?1 billion,2,3,4,5,6.

These people have many common points,who always talk about God and rules of God.According to them,rules of God are same for everyone.Seriously?

Humans have brain ?

I have no palace and Bugatti end of my life I will not have them,honestly I do not want.

How many people live as a slave?

How many people earn minumum wage salaries until grave yard?

How many retired people wait death with alonely?

How many people have health problems?

How many people have debts ? And How many people having suicide?

Tell me ,which religious men and women are misery,why they have golds and banks?

For thousands years,which merits stayed for now and  future?

If you have no any merits,what are differences between us and others?

In 21 century,we are still talking about constitution rights,and it is not a gift from your lords.

• “Knowing yourself is the beginning of all wisdom.” ...Aristoteles

Tension

Tension is getting high in Middle East and in Mediterranean Sea.Although this negative facts we can have peace ?

War can be possible,why not?

Energy & power & money can afford to make everything for a new war.

1 USD=140,000 Iran Riyal.


War bells

It is a nightmare for innocent Iranian People.

Unemployment rate & medicine & transportation sector have hard problems.

On the other hand,Mediterranean looks a dynamite,a small war & or punchings may happen in 21st century.

Silk Road & energy lines from Mediterranean,Aegean Sea to Europe ?

Where is Russia in this game?

Syria,Libia are part of this equation.Disintigration of region makes with bady badly results which means much more pain,poverty,disaster.

Many frigates & submarines & warships  are in the region,

Ons Gold is powder,Venezueala is still an unknown.


The end of the WORLD

This is the end for all of the us,glaciers have been destroying for a long time which created,creates will create much more suffering for normal people.

Asia,South America,North Pole,Europe Region,Australia have the biggest under risk places.Billions  of the world can have nothing in a short term.

World leaders are still fighting for petrol............................

The most funny thing,if you have not future for young generations,why or what will you do with petrol and its derivatives?

To be greedy means woefully, only not humankind for everything,lurching  is on your hands.The rest of the planet returns to big garbage.

Move to Zhejiang University

Nihao guys,nihao ma?

I move to China,if I do not die,I will start Chinese Language Program in this September in Zhejiang University.

I have no any Chinese Friends,if you want,we can be friends :)

After economy,finance,philosophy,learning Chinese can be awesome.

You can write me for any questions or advices to xmertsaglam@gmail.com

To be always hungry

Blind eyes,blind hearts...................

These people do not hear your screams and needings.

Economy,we can change meaning of economy yeah seriously why not?

Taxes ,even some countries gain money from your breads, but away they do not get  any taxes for  diamonds.

You should not forget it,if economical processings perturb or break,to find justice and law statement can be impossible.

Look at your countries people,you believe rules and law statements,you try to be a good men or women in your life,therefore,you have some doubts and you have obvious reasons,having a foolish feelings are not good for nice heart people.

In other side,we see bad people,their kinds,attitudes.by in terms of their perspectives they are prophets and angels,normal people are getting worse.

Not bad right?

Think,you are a cancer patient,and somebody comes,he stabs you then your disease hikes again.This guy is still free.

Justice...........

Coward people do not perceive some things let's be clear or make some definitions.In all history if you do not fight for justice and rules,god does not help you.

Numbers of centuries change,numbers of  people,animals,cars yeah they change but away principles,true kinds should be clear and equal for everyone.

We have strange times in every place of the world.Although these bad conditions,I believe that some good beliefs for humankind future.


Wars & artificial intelligence or new homes can be near.

6 months ago,I wrote an article,why rich guys are not part of techonology with NASA? Invest with NASA,Owner of Amazon Jeff Bezos had a first step in Moon for colonization.

Future is near.Open your eyes.

Future is dark

New week,new goals,new desires.But,President Trump looks not soft in trade war issues.If you search his Twitter Account,he tells we will extend customs ratios from % 10 to %25 for 200 billion trade goods.

Expactations of some economists are,China and USA could have an agreement in this May.

EM Markets already have hard times,5 fragile economies,the head of countries is Turkey.Core inflation and food inflation are tight.

The biggest trade partner of Turkey is China,it is not a good news.Lira,10 years Turkish Bonds and Istanbul Stock Market,especially in banking portfolios value are dropping.

Unemployment,in young people do not come down,it has been hiking for 8 months.Immigration and refugees work with cheap money and without insurance.Food industry needs innovation and creative technology.

Other biggest trade partner of Turkey is Europe Region,Germany,France are complicated,by directly China and Germany have many common points in trades,Trump still do not start custom wars for European Cars manufactures.On the other hand,the last movement of Trump will not be good for Europe.Brexit are waiting.

In Mediterranean Region looks like a dynamite.Cyprus & Israel & Russia & USA & Turkey & Greece & Nato & England.All of the corvettes,air craft ships,frigates,submarines are in there.The most efficient natural gas and petrol reserves are in this region,this fossile energy still means money and power.

Tensions of both countries ( Syria & Libia) are not cooling down.Petrol and Energy lines are the most vital issue.

In this equation,a different case can consist from,Fed keeps "be patient term",dollar index and 10 years bond of USA can effect decision of Fed Governors.

You are talking much

Do not listen Trump & Pence seriously,they talk much.

According to them,Fed should come down interest rates,also Trump told if Fed starts a new QE program,it will be great for economy.Seriously Trump,you should be a farmer seriously.

April Unemployment Rate %3,6

Non agricultural data :263,000

USA Economy has complicated signals,today non agricultural data happen 263,000 and unemployment level is %3,6 which means,the smallest level last 50 years.

But away PMI data look not powerful,some orderings of factories are not magical,the main effect is global slowing in the world.Before of storm or a big war.

China & Germany & England have  hard times,Brexit & trade wars are painful for all of them,for this reason,Iran and Syria are getting woefully.

Last week,USA repealed temporary permission of 8 countries for buying of Iran Petrol,Iran will have much more hard times.Hard and destroying times can be a first step for Iran Economy.It is not good for them.

EU does not create a swift system for money transfer with Iran,obviously incomings of this country  will effect with negatively to many poverty people,which means more unemployment & inflation & shortage in some sectors.

Syria is still an infinity incident,new operations started in Idlip,a new people immigration can be to Turkish Borders.

Turkish Economy has some problems,inflation & unemployment rate & firms & banks.

Last friday,inflation explained by Tuik,according to them,it was %19,65,but away from oil prices to food prices are so expensive.We see agricultural sector needs new and seriously reforms & technology package.

Brent Petrol Prices are hiking by new steps in Middle East,Libia,Iran.In Libia has a civil war now.

In this equation,some infinities objects are still waiting,Syria & Iran sanctions & F-35,S-400,Nato,Halkbank Case.

S&P report tells,Turkish Banks are fragile,they should have taking some cautions,CDS:450,Fed interest rates:2,5%,.

To finding money is impossible,well to finding cheap money is getting hard for all of developing countries.

Future is on your hands,if you do good steps,you can find a good conclusion for your nation and yourself.

Creating Gods

Humankind;

can be the worst thing in this universe ?

After creation,or before creation humans were good for nature and for themselves?

For many centuries,we created Gods,our Gods were such politicians,gladiators,musicians,naked women or mens.

Generally,this issue is always connected with sexual imaginations,

Science was not part of this thing.

Why humankind does not think ability?Humans able to think,analyse,asking questions for wrong or true?

We are not in Rome Terms,we have no arrows,swords and shields,we are in 21st century maybe in a short term,we will meet aliens reptillians other things who can know the future.

Main point is to creating question on your brain,fate?

If you are not a clever person,why God help you?

I had told and written it,be your God,do not create lords,sirs,masters,kings,queens.

You think,God needs our praying or other holy things for in every religion,therefore nope, 

many people exactly numbers can change 1 billion 2 billion 5 billion 7,5 billion have thinking ability ?

Your lords live in palaces,and they are so stingy,even they do not share your true rights?

1-)Minumun wage salary persons.

2-)Regulating pay of taxes people are not equal with riches.

3-)Retired persons,

4-)Olds,

5-)Cancer and other fatal patients,

6-)Children

7-)Animals,

8-)Women

"Brain is not an ass,brain is not a cock or pussy,brain is the most universal part of human body"

Trump?

If I were a trader in a big market or a ceo,I could not listen Trump,he just talks that is all.Last friday we learnt non agricultural data & unemployment rate.

Data were fasnicating.

196,000 new jobs.

3,8% rate.

After this decision,one hours later Trump told " Fed should not hike interest rates,no strong monetary policy,we need soft vehicles".

Why he always tell samethings ?

1-)China and Eu have been slowing for a long time ( Germany and China PMI are so slow)

2-)Japon and England (Brexit,Japon inflation problem)

3-)Middle East looks calm.( It is always a dynamite )

4-)New home sales,car sales and retail production sales have been dropping for 2 months.


World Economy waits somethings which are  a war or a economic destroying,time will be light for all of the citizens of planet.

Fed will not listen Trump,Powell had told samething with many times.Trump thinks,Brent Petrol Prices should down or stabil,which hikes,and will hike in coming term.(short term)

Iran is infinity equation (Russia-Isreal looks so closing).

China looks risky but EM Markets are much more worse than all of them, gold always waits a news for hiking to peak.

Clever traders prefer powerful government bonds ( England,Usa maybe)


A clear mind points that,the way of world is not normal,getting worse much more to befores.


Call name,perfect storm or a glacier storm.

Back to Home

F -35 can be the best stealth jet in  defence history Raptors and F- 35. Turkey is a member of estate of this fighter jet.For a long time,USA-Turkey have some problems for this reason.S-400 deal of Turkey  with Russia is not acceptable for USA.

USA Secretary of  Defence  (Pentagon) says like that,according to Reuters,Turkey will not be part of F-35 ,new contries will complete place of Turkey (production and buying jets)

This is so funny,seriously.Nato Members,Turkey is a Nato Member and its army is powerful.F-35 Program started in 2010,this decision should not be permanent.

Why firms invested ?

Who will refinance these firms?

It means unemployment ?

Turkish Economy

In terms of economy,this decision did not create any negative effect for Turkish Economy elections too.

Recently weeks,Swap and Interest rates have changed,traders and investors saw so highly numbers,TCMB chose controlling of dollar in Turkish Economy,they suppose it is so obviously.Hiking inflation and current deficit is conclusion of powerful dollar.

Tomarrow we will learn april inflation of Turkey.

USA Economy

10 years bond and 2 years bond are near with each others,investors point it can be recession not many of them,others tell yield curve has no any meaning.

Data look complicated,inflation is not punching.New home sales  used home sales ,retail sector are not magical.

Friday will be vital,non agricultural data and unemloyment rate will explain.

My personal view,10 years bonds will hike again,gold or USA Bonds.

ECB-CHINA-BREXIT

Director of Europe Zone is always Germany,but away,in this time boss has been slowly stepings.President Trump did not start a trade war to Europe.Duty of cars,and additional taxes are still waiting.

Relationship of China-Europe can be much more powerful to before.

Brexit will not be soft,markets are ready for this decision.Only signatures are necessary for applying of this deal.

Only Dream Worlds

When you wake up every morning,and smell weather,why do you feel you are not well ?I mean you are not from Mars right ?

I remember,I had mentioned these things many times on my articles.

Economy ?

Suppose,you can estate a bridge with $ 2 but you estate it with $ 5 so,where is rest of money ?

Economy,and its subjects,directly or indirectly have no any importance,some people (awful) have no any knowledge and work quality;

so normally;conclusions are not fine.

Humankind;unfortunately I am a member of this kind;

We do not understand somethings seriously;

Why they care our problems?


RETIRED PERSONS FIND PEACE ONLY GRAVEYARDS.

CANCER PATIENTS WHO CARES THEM THEY ALREADY DIE,

MINUMUM WAGE SALARY PEOPLE,

CHILDREN,

ANIMALS,

WOMENS,

NATURE,


"It is about your brain & mind & attitude,if you have no any parts of wealth,you live in hell and you always find it.

The problem is,some people suppose these things are normal,if you are a primitive bacteria you have only a cell,consequences are normal for you."

DATA OF USA,Turkey and ECB

Last quarter   growth ratios of USA and Turkey shared.Data look complicated for Turkey.

TUIK says,Turkey has %2,6 growth in 2018.In last quarter of 2018,Turkey slumps %3.According to data importing power looked so slowly,we know that,Turkish Economy is connected with importing products and raw materials for production.

In Last weeks,OECD,IMF shared some reports about 2019 for Turkey.

You can find details in TUIK web site.

TLTRO

2019 will not be easy for Turkish Economy,slowing economy in Europe Zone (TLTRO ECB Program) means,our production and importing power  can be worse to 2018.

Again,ECB started a loan program (TLTRO for Banking) European Banks Capital do not look well,Deutsche Bank and other Italian Banks have some seriously problems.

An anecdote,this is not a QE program.EM Markets will have not any opportunity in this incident.

 BACK TO USA ECONOMY

We learned employment rate,work hours power,agricultural data last friday.Data were awesome agricultural data came out to 20,000 expectations (180,000-200,000).Ignorant economists tell data were so bad sure......

But away,they were so stupid and ignorant,even they did not listen or know FED reports and Powell Speech.

FED warned to President Trump and other officials for employment.If shutingdown was not happened,we could have much more less employment rate.

While these things were  consisting,President Trump did not tell any negative sentences about Powell and FED.

%3,8 empoyment rate is awesome to expectations,we talk about 325,000,000 country and currently 175,000,000 people have a job.

One more thing for ignorants...........

I will have same ideas,FED can wait Brexit,after july FED will hike interest rates and reducing of portfolio will go on until 2019 ending.

EM Markets will have much more hard days,economy is not a story.This is a survivor,if you understand realities and mentalities you can be sucess.

MOODYS 2019-2020

One of the most important rating firms Moodys published  about 2019-2020 global economical expectations.


https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1161581

For 2019-FED-ECB

They think,Fed will hike interest rates one or two times in 2019 instead of 3 or 4 times.According to last year data,we thought ECB will hike interest rates in 2019 summer,Moodys tells it will be in 2020 first quarter.

Independently from this subjects,yesterday last quarter of 2018 USA growth shared to public,it happended % 2,6 (total growth) expectations were % 2,2.Also Government was shutdown and many polar stormings were present in last quarter of 2018.

BOE,will have a tight monetary policy for low inflation in 2019-2020.

Turkey,Argentina will have recession,China will have a slowing momentum to 2020 (sinking credits -bad loans and  trade wars).EM Markets do not look well by report.

GLOBAL RISKS

1-)Trade wars,USA and China look a peace but away,we do not know conditions and time period between two countries.For technological products,they had no any deals.

USA and EU have no deal for tarrifs (car duties from Europe Car Firms).Europe Economy,especially Germany has been slowing down by trade wars for a long time, but away main reason is performance of China for them. From 2018 starting China has a trade war tightness and sinking credits bad loans problems for their economies,EU and China are the biggest trade partners.

2-)Brexit

Prime Minister May postponed revised Brexit deal to 12 March,currently comments and analysis of Moodys point,a hard divorcing can be possible.

3-)Middle East

   Syria,Iran.

4-)East Asia

 India-Pakistan.

Speech Of Powell

Dear,FED President has a meeting with dear congress members in DC.Chairman of FED told many things about monetary policy,recession,inflation,normalization,reducing portfolios.

Underlined sentences are "We do not care politicians ideas,we do our mission."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UzdWCi3Kn0

Full of speech of Powell,

According to data USA Economy looks wonderful.Only deficit is explanitons of President Trump about FED.

Work force salary is GOOD,

Unemployment Data is GOOD,

Inflation looks near to target.

We talk about 325,000,000 people country.

Trump should perceive one thing,FED is not his toy.They know matters and conclusions economic developings.Twitter tellings are not nice for famous of FED.After Powell Speech,I guess FED governours will not listen Trump.

                                 UNDERLINED OR VITAL PARTS OF HIS SPEECH

1-)Data look awesome,but away we had some complicated signals for our economy.

2-)We have still patient term for hiking interest rates.

3-)China and EU still have slowing in their growths.

4-)South America countries have some problems.(Argentina,Chile,Venezuela)

5-)We watch Brexit.

6-)We will tell some things about normalization of FED Balance sheets (reducing portfolios) in a near time period.

7-)FED does not care any politicians ideas,we decide according to economical developings.

After chairman speech,10 years  bonds hiked from 2,64 to 2,68.We will follow other numbers.Dollar Index is near to 96,037.Ons Gold dropped  from 1330$ to 1325 $.

In addition,FED will be HAWKISH.

Clever Nations

These words are necessary for clever nations,in above picture,you see a new invention,which is created by American and  Australia science people.

No scar,no stitch,no pain.

China was created a gel which was used only deleting of scar  trace on your body.Now,this invention is magnificient and awesome for humankind.

China,USA,Australia,England or any countries who cares their nations or other things.The main criteria should be science and future.

 Look at that,stitches lost within 25 seconds.This is science BABY.In below pitcure,you see no any scar on body,a perfect skin.

Adhesive plasters,will be stayed on history or some books.

All of these scientific developings are connected with monetary policies by directly.If you have a good plan for your nation,which can be for science,medicine,tourism,art,artificial intelligence.

You can develop,design,invent these things for yourself and humankind.

You suppose ,aim of the monetary policy is to controlling  or keeping ,balancing for inflation,interest rates,currency.

SCIENCE MEANS MONEY

Money is a source or a foundation building of these super hyper inventions.

DO YOU THINK THESE STEPS ARE PARTS OF NEXT  ESTATING NEW WORLDS?

Sure,I am  sure  with %100 about this thing. Our planet is sick,it is not a new news,look at the papers,internet news  or your searchings.Generally 10 incidents are consisting of with bad news only 1 news look well.

Income Equality,

Justice Equality,

Women rights,

Keeping Children,

Keeping Animals,

Keeping sources of the earth.

"Future is science,future is rationalism."

Monetary Policy Report of FED

Reports of February meeting of FED shared by officials on their web site,reports have many data it is usual but away some points look vital in this case.

Inflation-Workforce Activity-International Issues

Inflation is a critic datum for FED,they try to arrive target point (%2,0).Now USA inflation is %1,9.FOMC members think,end of this year %2,0 target inflation will settle.

Although good data (December,January),FED told " We will be patient for hiking rates".

Trade Wars (USA-CHINA)

FOMC members suppose,slowing  economy of China can be risk for USA,EU.President Trump told yesterday,"We are near a dealing between China"If  it happens we can not talk current deficit problem,Yuan effect or like that things end of 2020.

According to FED report of 22 February Meeting,FOMC members had a debate for treasury bonds,they had some reasons why volatility was so high.They thought main reason was  trade wars effects.

My personal idea is still valid,"President Trump said why FED is hiking interest rates?,They should stop and they should end reducing of portfolios (balance sheet normalization).After this incident USA Economy looks having some problems on 10 and 2 years treasury,stock markets (Dow Jones,Nasdaq,S &P 500).

Investors did not like tone of Trump against FED,and Powell.However,after meeting in White House markets look stabilize and normal.

Probably,China and USA will have a peace,after this case,we will follow relationship between EU and USA.EU car producers accept USA  tarrifs.

All of things are in same equation with ECB,which have no any buying  QE program.Markets wait a hiking rates in 2019 summer by ECB.

In terms of USA  perspective,developing economies do not look well,Summary of it,they tell having slowing of growth of China is not good for Euro Area,they mean trading wars with China.

Tarrifs are affected with negatively to China and trading partners of China. Some anecdotes were told about Latin American Countries for political issues.


Summary of this meeting by my side

Political issues are so complicated and it is getting infinite by global economy.Venezueala can be second Syria or not we will see,by any negative step can be reason hiking petrol prices.

Trump have deal with EU,China.It means trading wars will stop until 2020.
Different cases are still present,Syria,Iran,Sudan,Venezuela.

If FED does not suppose having a problem,by pressure of inflation,we can see again hawkish FED.

Ideas of this mortal

I am surprised,Brent Petrol Prices are still rising;reasons can be like that....

1-)USA and Russia have a deal for hiking prices of Brent Petrol.

2-)By this step,Russia accepts  sanctions for Venezuela.

According to Reuters,Gazprom freezes accounts of Venezuela Government.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-gazprombank/russias-gazprombank-freezes-accounts-of-venezuelas-pdvsa-source-idUSKCN1Q60BK

It is link of the this news,you can read it.

In terms of these happenings,we can tell President Trump and Putin have a deal for Venezuela.Yesterday,President Trump had a meeting about Venezuela,tone of his speech was not soft.

WHAT IT DOES MEAN FOR ECONOMY?

In case of hiking of Brent Petrol Prices,USA inflation will move to %2 point.FED decision will be critic.In last meeting,if you look at explanations.

FOMC members point low price of Brent Petrol will not hike inflation,and we can be patient.

Now,

Brent Petrol price is $ 67.We will see $ 80 in a short term,having current deficit countries by energy have big problems.

Brexit can be hard.

OR

It can be a tactic. They will have a peace.

And,Iran foreign  affair minister tells we are ready for fight against Israel.Ons gold prices are not slow,it can be hectic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQ-kaJnyG4A

In big stock markets,some portfolios have losting of value.

We have so fast days from economy to global warming,technology,I mean directly or indirectly matters and conclusions for humankind.

"Future is science"

Tell me something about strange

I remember,I wrote these things many times.What is meaning of strange?

From economy to global warming,artificial intellegence,health,technology in everyting with directly or indirectly for human life  is changed.

According to data,we will have bad and heavy weather conditions in every year,I have heard a strange news that was connected with Mars and Moon.China says,

USA is not boss of the space,we are interested in some regions in Mars or Moon.

In my opinion that about third war,if it starts one day,the main reason will be  for space.2 countries are different,they are super.

We talk about trillons $.

If you have a limited brain capacity,you should perceive somethings on your brain cells.Have you ever thought seriously they are fighting for global warming?

I mean reducing of effects it or refugee problems,justice system,incoming equality,education system.

NOPE.

NOPE.

New planet,super genes humans,powerful machines ( clever and independent vehicles).

       Cruel fighting in Space Surface of the Moon between China and USA.

For instance,young genaration has so problems,they are graduated from universites with having a ranking or not, but away they do not find job even for in their profession.

They do not find any solutions for them.

Cancer patients,

SMA illness,

COPD illness,

respect women,

keeping children,

education and job rights for female and males.

justice for everyone in front of  laws.

Now,everybody talks about a recession in  growth of  2019 ,do you think sellings of big portfolios or in big stock markets are vital issues for young generation futures?

NOPE,

I am sure that,this is an enigma,and we are a small pawn it is so clearly.we do not find solutions,on the contrary problems are increasing,temporary cautions look so funny.

Greedy only creates colestrol and increasing of heart attack risks.Currently problems can matter other infinity complicated enigmas in future.

"Science will be key of the now and next times"

ŞAHİN OLMAK İÇİN SEBEPLER ÇOK

Tuhaf ve tehlikeli bir oyun ya da taktik FED tarafından;biz de ki yerli ekonomistler abi FED faiz arttırmaz ya daralma olacak biliyor musun.Bilançoyu kısacak, para basacak ve faizleri indirecek tabi yapar.

Neden bu kadar kendime güvenerek konuşuyorum rakamlar ortada.

Aralık ayı istihdam 300,000,ocak istihdam 304,000 işsizlik son 59 yılın en düşük seviyesinde üstüne üstelik sanayinin olduğu yerlerde inanılmaz kutup soğukları ve fırtınalar vardı.Kuzeyde -40 gibi.

Powell,bence Başkan Trump'un bazen saçma bazen kendi açısından doğru açıklamalarından bıktı ve usandı.Diyorki:Rakamlar iyi istihdam yükselirken neden faizleri düşüreyim?Zaten aralık ayında bir ufak yapay kriz oldu sizin sayenizde :)).

Ticaret Savaşları

Zaten bu hamle Çin'e,Avrupa'ya hatta ve hatta Kanada'ya kadar uygulanan tarifelerin amacı onların büyümelerini yavaşlatmak ve ticaret dengesini sağlamak idi,başarılı oldular mı evet.

İlk defa uzun bir aradan sonra aslında bu 2018 eylül ayından beri cari açık (Amerika)tarafından belirgin bir şekilde azalıyor bu onlar açısından çok iyi bir şey. Özellikle Çin'e karşı.

Daha önce belirtmiştim,Başkan Trump büyük bir soya ihracatı için Çin ile anlaşma imzalayacak ve tabi LNG içinde o kadar çok LNG mevcut ki artık depolarda yer yok.

Bu tarz hamleler çelikte,alüminyumda,arabalarda,elektronik eşyalarda kotalar ticaret dengesinde pozitif düzenlemeler getirdi.

Örnek :Japonya;Başbakan Abe ile Başkan Trump Teksas'da  Toyota ve Honda gibi otomotiv devlerinin Amerikalılara istihdam sağlaması açısından fabrika ve tesis kurma konusunda anlaşmışlardı.

Dönelim FED'e.

FED biraz ikili oynuyor şimdi Saint Louis FED başkanı James Bullord diyor ki sabırla işimiz olmaz rakamlar iyiyse faize devam aynı şekilde Dallas FED Başkanı da öyle bu üyeler FOMC toplantıda oy hakkına sahipler.

Gelelim magazin kısmına,Trump ve Powell baş başa tabi Hazine Bakanı Mnuchin ile beraber yemek yediler basına herhangi bir açıklama yapılmadı lakin güçlü istihdamdan dolayı Trump'un Powell 'ı takdir ettiği belirtiliyor.

En kritik nokta şuydu:Başkan Trump uzun bir süre hem Yellen ile hem de Powell ile Twitter aracılığı ile uğraşmaya başlamıştı en son Aralık 2018'de son faiz artışından sonra Trump Cephesi kızgın açıklamalar yapmıştı,55 gündür bir açıklama yok tersine pozitif.

Amerikan Borsaları zor zamanlar geçirmişti 10 yıllıklar %2,75 yaklaşıp %2,58 düşüp çıkıp geldi.

Tabi bunlar gelişmiş bir ülke için iyi değil.

Sonuç

Şahsi fikrim şu an herhangi bir küresel kriz beklentisi yok gelişmiş ülkelerden bakış açım bu Brexit,ve Venezuela karışık konular.

Diğer konular ise,bir resesyon şimdi ve 2020'de pek muhtemel gözükmüyor (Amerika açısından).

Cari açık Çin'e karşı azaldığı sürece ve istihdam,işsizlik,işe katılım,enflasyon kısmende olsa etken pozitif geldiği müddetçe faizler artar.

Yani şahin tutumlar gelebilir gerçekçi olmak her zaman iyidir,ayakların yere basar.

Improvisation-Doğaçlama

When I am writing these sentences,believe me I never watch Supernatural.

Tell me what is your aim?
Tell me your route,map,ideas,expecations.

Balance
Moral
Artificial intelligence
Technology
Colonization
New worlds
Asking questions
Searching
Philosophy

Somethings never do not change,as you sow, so shall you reap ,today the planet is moving to abyss,this place losts  to living features.However present places only stayed with grams.

Why are  you unhappy when you move to working?

Or

At School,
At University
At Bus
Taking a shower,
Travelling,
Playing with your dogs,

When  your loving people can have cancer disease like a flu.

Or other fatal strange diseases.

Antartica,If  core of the world is an engine,there is cold liquid name Antartica.This place has glaciers and ice lands.It is a balance point for our home,for a long time all of them have been destroying.From USA,to Mexico,Brasil,Indonesia,Europe,Japan have earthquakes,tsunamis,polar stormings,hoses,floods.

Millions decares agricultural area had seriously damages in everywhere.

Polar stormings weather measured with -40 celcious in metropol cities of USA.


Denge;
ahlak;
yapay zeka;
teknoloji;
koloniler;
yeni dünyalar;
sorgulama;
araştırma;
felsefe;

Bazı şeyler değişemez ne ekersen onu biçersin bugün dünya giderek  uçuruma doğru yaklaşıyor yaşanabilecek yer olmaktan çıkıyor  ve de olan yerlerde gram gram kaldı.

Neden işe giderken mutsuzsun?

Ya da işte,
okulda
otobüste
yemek yerken
duş alırken
gezerken
köpeğini severken,
sevdiğin insanların kansere sanki grip gibi yakalanması,
koah,
ya da başka tuhaf yeni nesil hastalıklar.

Antarktika, Dünya'nın çekirdeği bir motor ise onun soğutma sıvısı orasıdır ve giderek yok oluyor,son 6 aydır Meksika'dan,Endonezya'ya,Brezilya'ya,Japonya'ya her yerde depremler 6 ve üstü giderek normalleşiyor.

Buzulların yok olması,nükleer füzelerin testleri ya da bilinmeyen şeylerin denenmesi.
Tsunamiler,
Volkanik patlamalar,

-40 santigrat dereceler bu sene Amerika'da meydana geldi,kar fırtınaları ve soğuklar. Alaska değil metropol şehirler.


Ya da Avrupa'da seller,hortumlar tarım arazilerinin yok olması artık normalleşti.Bilmem sayısını unuttum artık,kaç sefer bunlara benzer şeyler yazdım.

Sizce neden yapay zekaya bu kadar yatırım yapılıyor?
Neden hatasız anne karnında genleri değiştirilmiş çocuklar dünyaya geliyor?
Ya da Ay'da yapay atmosfer kurup patates ve pamuk üretmenin amacı ne?
Mars'ta donmuş buz parçaları bulmanın.
Ya da başka gezegenler.

Davinci,Tesla,Omer Hayyam,Ibni Sına,Einstein,Newton ve diğerleri.

Modern dünyanın temeli bu ise ondan sonrası ne? Yeni evler ya da yeni ülkeleri uzayda kurmak neden olmasın?

Bizleri ileriye taşıyacak tek güç bilimdir,ürettiğimiz teknoloji bugün ve yarının teminatı olabilir tabi bu bizlere bağlı.

Ancak şu gerçekler var,eğer evini temiz tutmazsan başka evlerde kirlenir işte bu ahlak ve terbiyedir.Umarım bir günde olsa anlayabilme kavramamız para ve sanal zevklerin ötesine geçer ki bundan sonrası bizim için bir dönüm noktası olabilir.

Inflation Game (Puzzle)

TUIK you know its name,they share january CPI and PPI inflation rates today.I will not talk about how they calculate or measure Turkish Inflation;

I will tell some simple things you can perceive easily me,listen guys ;

Now stuffed peppers,eggplants do not sell some in markets,some officials say prices are so high and you can not sell them.

Its name is KarnıYarık actually guys you hear it I am sure.It consists of eggplants,tomatoes,peppers,mince,garlic.

Now one kg eggplant is 20 TL it means 4 $

5 garlic  is 20 lira

1 kg pepper 15-20 lira

1 kg scallion is 18-20 lira

Tell me,if you do not use garlic,scallions for your meals,have you got a delicious taste? I do not think so,these beautiful and healthy foods are natural immunity for human body.

The most important case is  to start importing of onion,wheat,barley with zero customs in this month,In despite of importing of these things,food inflation is  about %30.

According to TCMB they think food inflation can affect with negatively to core inflation.In case of these matters,agricultural policy do not change.

Future will be on agricultural,water in coming soon.By global warming effects create negative consequences in every place of the world.Polar colds in Usa,hose incidents in Turkey (Antalya,Mersin),Japon earthquakes and tsunamis.Mexico,Indonesia earthquakes

Now numbers what they tell?

CPI is %20,35.PPI is %32.From this summer until currently time we have 10 points differences between PPI and CPI indexes.

Reasons can be that producers  think customers have no enough buying power and they accept losting of their profits or they wait elections after this incident,prices can change with fastly.

But away,some realities are clear.Agricultural production is getting lower and weak.

Global Issues

Trump did not talk about Fed for a long time,(40 days).By Mr President 10 years USA bonds,Dow Jones,S &P 500 lost power.

December and January non agricultural data,workforce power,employment rate are great for 320,000,000 country.

Fed says we follow China,Brexit in my personal idea Fed will hike 2 times rates.If they do not 

1-)Why money return to home?

2-)They pointed  Brent Petrol Prices will be 60 $ and inflation will not rise much.Consuming and growth are rising.

Fed  will do 2 times hiking rates (June,December).I guess.

Ahmaklar İçin

Ahmaklar için gerçekten 8 milyarlık gezegende kaç milyar aptal var ?

IQ,beyin hücresi veya benzer bir şey var mı? Bence bir yerlerde sorun var.


Sayamıyorum,diyorlar ki halkı aç,insanlar ölüyor,göç ediyor,ameliyat olamıyor tuvalet kağıdı dahi yok;

Beyni kullanmıyorsan  neye yarar?Saksı değil bu ya da süs objesi.


Daha çok örnek var milyarlarca hatta trilyon $ 'larca :))).

Hiç bir ineği, kasabı kovalarken gördünüz mü hayır,kısıtlı beyinleri var yani temel şeyleri algılayabiliyorlar ama bizler farklıyız.


Bizler insanız;Mars'a ya da Ay'a koloni kurmaya çalışan,ölümün ne olduğunu araştıran ya da sonrasını ,insan klonlamaya çalışan,yapay zekadan maximumu almaya çalışan bir türüz.Görünüşte öyle.


Liderler evet dünya liderleri hiçbir dünya lideri gördünüz mü maaş almıyorum ancak  temel gıdam için ve ailem için barınma,yeme içme vb.

Ben halkımı temsil ediyorum ben örnek olmalıyım,malesef.

Şimdiki zamanın 17. yüzyıldan farkı ne ?

Şu;kolunda bir saat,bir kadın,cebinde Iphone ve de arabanın anahtarı bizler medeniyiz ve kurallar ile yasalara çok saygılıyız.


Küresel ısınmadan  da şikayet ediyorlar her yere bina sonra sel ya da fırtına kopunca çok üzgünüz;

ya da eğitimde;

ekonomide;

sanatta;

kültürde;

insan haklarında;

hayvan haklarında;


Dediğim gibi bu beyni kullanmak lazım Dünya yaşanabilecek bir yer olmaktan çıkıyor.

1960'daki dünya ile şimdi ki bir mi değil.

Çalışmalar boşuna yapılmıyor,uzay dışı yaşam, genleri değiştirilmiş insanlar + yapay zeka.

Temiz,0'dan bir gezegen.Önce koloniler kur ondan sonra  evler inşa et,şehirler ve ülkeler yeni dünyalar.

Zaten gidişat bu yönde.

Eski uygarlıklar mükemmele yakınlardı benim teorim bu yönde.Tek bildiğimiz gösterilen şeyler.


"Tek çözüm bilim,eğitim,araştırma ve sorgulamak"