Care mi yoksa Ağır Depresyon  mu !!!!!! Medicine or a  Heavy Depression

Selam herkese ,şokla  başladık güne merkez Politika faizinde %16,50 gitti GLP faiziyle aynı  oldu üst bant  18,50 oldu....

Arjantin de haftalık repo faizleri %33 şimdi bizde de 1 Hazirandan sonra % 16,50 olacak peki tepki 

ne oldu?

Not:Arjantin 15 gün önce IMF ile 30 $ milyar bir stand-by antlaşması yaptı.

4,60'dan 4,58 düştü sadece 2 kuruşluk bir oynama..........................

1-)Büyüme beklentileri  artık azalacak.

2-)Borçlanma artacak maliyetler.

3-)Piyasanın tepkisi çok enteresan politika faizi % 8 den 16,50 geldi 800 baz puan ama 

hala bir kıpırdama yok.....

4-)Bu hafta S &P ve Fitch takip edilecek ( not görünümü ve de olası cezalar hakkında not görünümü hakkında bilgiler) bugün Amerikan Piyasaları kapalı 

ROK-OR MORE

NEEDS

İyi haftalar herkese,daha önce bahsettiğim gibi hızla yükselen bir kur var sebeplerini zaten belirtmiştik.

1-)Yüksek enflasyon,çekirdek enflasyon %12 seviyesinde gıda ürünlerinde gevşeme olsada

kur geçirgenliği yüksek olduğu için hala yüksek.

2-)Cari açık petrol fiyatların yükselmesi bir varil petrol =75*4,25 önceki 60*4

bu da bütçenin bozulması demek.

3-)Global olaylar İran-ABD ve İsrail arasında artan gerilim ve savaş riski.

4-)Arjantin'de haftalık repo faizleri %33 seviyesine yükseltildi şu an bir aylık mevduatta

pesoya %44 faiz veriliyor.

5-)Hakan Atilla Davası'nın kararı ve de ABD temsilciler meclisinde silah ambargosu tasarası

önümüzdeki hafta görüşülecek.

Have a good week,I had mentioned about some risk for Turkish Economy and Stock Market in my articles.

1-)Dollar has been gaining against Turkish Lira for a long time,last week Turkish Central Bank

raised %0,75  interest rate in late night window but away it is not enough.

In this morning Turkish Central Bank dropped coefficient of ROK which means

banks can have more liquidity about 2,2 billion USD.

2-)Global risks are getting higher,however it effects Petrol prices.Current Deficit is a problem

for Turkish Economy in other way unexpected currency movements can do a shocked effect in Turkish Stock Markets.

Last week we saw hard sellings in  Turkish Banking Index,some economists thought the main reason was S&P  lowers credit note for Turkey.

Others supposed  Hakan Atilla case - decision and US gun sanctions for Turkish Defense Industry.

GAME OR A NEW AREA

Strong Dollar showed its power and effect in many countries.Today date is 180412.Dollar has been 

gaining against TL, for one month as % 3.......

Two days ago Iran decided to prefer fixed currency.Ruble lost %6  against $ two days ago.

1-)Politicial issues( Turkey has many deal with Russia) S-400,Nuclear Energy and other 

technology signings for Defense Industry.

2-)If we compare data of Turkish   current account deficits,especially 2016,2017 and 2018 first

quarter.It is equal Turkey Budget percent 5 which means 50 billion USD.And high Inflation

3-)US-France-England  can do operation in Syria.

Last week I wrote many reasons why Lira is so weak? China-US trade wars ,China is the biggest partner of Turkey in foreign Trade second Russia or Germany.

Turkish Deficit problem is not only today problem,big capitals do not buy some portfolio in BIST index .In other way 10 years int rate percent 15.....

1-)FED can raise interest rates in every month after 2018
2-)Politicial issues

 In this Graph you see Turkish Deficit in 2017

Changings?

Changings?

I wrote my last article four months ago.....What changed? Turkish Stock market increased over 100,000 upper limit...

And Dolar/TL looks stabil range 3,68-3,55.We did not see 3,80 over also Turkish 2 years bond decreased 10,00 but away Inflalation data was so higher than befores.10 years bond and 2 years bond increased  same which ranges are 12,00-11,50 % 

Comparing with Turkish Lira 

Also Turkish Gdp data came out with 3,5 in second quarter.Many researchers got wrong.In other way Turkish Foreign Trade still is so higher.And oil prices still are in 45-55 $

FED will get  mixing balance sheet in this September.Fed raised int rate 0,25% in last June.Some of Fed Presidents said " we should improve balance sheet economy is getting warm"

10 Years USA treasury bond

Last friday US non agri cultural data was higher than expectations which has been 200,000.Expectations were 160,000.Therefore un employment rate still decreases which ratio is 4,6%. If we look at the graph 10 years treasury is near to 2,25.

After these data US dollar index has increased a little bit.But away  we saw  100,000 over two months ago.Altough in same term Euro got a value against $.ECB still goes on with new packages for European Union.In this way new strong movement can happen in USD.Dollar Index has been  a stabil movement recently.

Strong Dollar ($)

Two days ago Dear Donald J. TRUMP who is president of USA said Dollar is so powerful because of me people trust me .I think it is a true idea.He promises  new factories,new infrastructures,new ways and the most important thing taxing regulation and new healthing system program.It means investing and growing up.

But  another reason is USA economy has a really powerful  acceleration.FED  has been arriving all targets since 2013.FED said in 2013 October there is no QE any more no CHEAP money for all developing contries and investors.

First aims are 1-)Inflation %2,0 2-)Unemployment rate %4,4-4,5.

In this graph it summarizes US Wage and salaries growth,they raise up for a long time.Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index,Cleveland  Consumer Trusting Index have a stabil line,Also they help controlling and dropping unemployment rate.

US inflation;it is so important or can be the most important parameter for an economy.In 2014  Janet YELLEN  said we will a tigh monetary policy.What does it  means? 

1-) NO QE,Ex FED president Ben BERNANKE finished to buy QE

2-)OK No QE means tight monetary policy.1-) Raising Interest Ratings 2-)No cheap money

First  raising interest ratings started in 2015,US 2 years bonds were near 0,1.Now it is %1,26 .Also Inflation is near to 1 now is 2,7.Target was %2,0.

USA Economy grows up.I believe that realistic economy policies are the key of economic strenght and wealth.