Only Dream Worlds

When you wake up every morning,and smell weather,why do you feel you are not well ?I mean you are not from Mars right ?

I remember,I had mentioned these things many times on my articles.

Economy ?

Suppose,you can estate a bridge with $ 2 but you estate it with $ 5 so,where is rest of money ?

Economy,and its subjects,directly or indirectly have no any importance,some people (awful) have no any knowledge and work quality;

so normally;conclusions are not fine.

Humankind;unfortunately I am a member of this kind;

We do not understand somethings seriously;

Why they care our problems?


RETIRED PERSONS FIND PEACE ONLY GRAVEYARDS.

CANCER PATIENTS WHO CARES THEM THEY ALREADY DIE,

MINUMUM WAGE SALARY PEOPLE,

CHILDREN,

ANIMALS,

WOMENS,

NATURE,


"It is about your brain & mind & attitude,if you have no any parts of wealth,you live in hell and you always find it.

The problem is,some people suppose these things are normal,if you are a primitive bacteria you have only a cell,consequences are normal for you."

DATA OF USA,Turkey and ECB

Last quarter   growth ratios of USA and Turkey shared.Data look complicated for Turkey.

TUIK says,Turkey has %2,6 growth in 2018.In last quarter of 2018,Turkey slumps %3.According to data importing power looked so slowly,we know that,Turkish Economy is connected with importing products and raw materials for production.

In Last weeks,OECD,IMF shared some reports about 2019 for Turkey.

You can find details in TUIK web site.

TLTRO

2019 will not be easy for Turkish Economy,slowing economy in Europe Zone (TLTRO ECB Program) means,our production and importing power  can be worse to 2018.

Again,ECB started a loan program (TLTRO for Banking) European Banks Capital do not look well,Deutsche Bank and other Italian Banks have some seriously problems.

An anecdote,this is not a QE program.EM Markets will have not any opportunity in this incident.

 BACK TO USA ECONOMY

We learned employment rate,work hours power,agricultural data last friday.Data were awesome agricultural data came out to 20,000 expectations (180,000-200,000).Ignorant economists tell data were so bad sure......

But away,they were so stupid and ignorant,even they did not listen or know FED reports and Powell Speech.

FED warned to President Trump and other officials for employment.If shutingdown was not happened,we could have much more less employment rate.

While these things were  consisting,President Trump did not tell any negative sentences about Powell and FED.

%3,8 empoyment rate is awesome to expectations,we talk about 325,000,000 country and currently 175,000,000 people have a job.

One more thing for ignorants...........

I will have same ideas,FED can wait Brexit,after july FED will hike interest rates and reducing of portfolio will go on until 2019 ending.

EM Markets will have much more hard days,economy is not a story.This is a survivor,if you understand realities and mentalities you can be sucess.

MOODYS 2019-2020

One of the most important rating firms Moodys published  about 2019-2020 global economical expectations.


https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1161581

For 2019-FED-ECB

They think,Fed will hike interest rates one or two times in 2019 instead of 3 or 4 times.According to last year data,we thought ECB will hike interest rates in 2019 summer,Moodys tells it will be in 2020 first quarter.

Independently from this subjects,yesterday last quarter of 2018 USA growth shared to public,it happended % 2,6 (total growth) expectations were % 2,2.Also Government was shutdown and many polar stormings were present in last quarter of 2018.

BOE,will have a tight monetary policy for low inflation in 2019-2020.

Turkey,Argentina will have recession,China will have a slowing momentum to 2020 (sinking credits -bad loans and  trade wars).EM Markets do not look well by report.

GLOBAL RISKS

1-)Trade wars,USA and China look a peace but away,we do not know conditions and time period between two countries.For technological products,they had no any deals.

USA and EU have no deal for tarrifs (car duties from Europe Car Firms).Europe Economy,especially Germany has been slowing down by trade wars for a long time, but away main reason is performance of China for them. From 2018 starting China has a trade war tightness and sinking credits bad loans problems for their economies,EU and China are the biggest trade partners.

2-)Brexit

Prime Minister May postponed revised Brexit deal to 12 March,currently comments and analysis of Moodys point,a hard divorcing can be possible.

3-)Middle East

   Syria,Iran.

4-)East Asia

 India-Pakistan.