Changings?

Changings?

I wrote my last article four months ago.....What changed? Turkish Stock market increased over 100,000 upper limit...

And Dolar/TL looks stabil range 3,68-3,55.We did not see 3,80 over also Turkish 2 years bond decreased 10,00 but away Inflalation data was so higher than befores.10 years bond and 2 years bond increased  same which ranges are 12,00-11,50 % 

Comparing with Turkish Lira 

Also Turkish Gdp data came out with 3,5 in second quarter.Many researchers got wrong.In other way Turkish Foreign Trade still is so higher.And oil prices still are in 45-55 $

FED will get  mixing balance sheet in this September.Fed raised int rate 0,25% in last June.Some of Fed Presidents said " we should improve balance sheet economy is getting warm"

10 Years USA treasury bond

Last friday US non agri cultural data was higher than expectations which has been 200,000.Expectations were 160,000.Therefore un employment rate still decreases which ratio is 4,6%. If we look at the graph 10 years treasury is near to 2,25.

After these data US dollar index has increased a little bit.But away  we saw  100,000 over two months ago.Altough in same term Euro got a value against $.ECB still goes on with new packages for European Union.In this way new strong movement can happen in USD.Dollar Index has been  a stabil movement recently.

Strong Dollar ($)

Two days ago Dear Donald J. TRUMP who is president of USA said Dollar is so powerful because of me people trust me .I think it is a true idea.He promises  new factories,new infrastructures,new ways and the most important thing taxing regulation and new healthing system program.It means investing and growing up.

But  another reason is USA economy has a really powerful  acceleration.FED  has been arriving all targets since 2013.FED said in 2013 October there is no QE any more no CHEAP money for all developing contries and investors.

First aims are 1-)Inflation %2,0 2-)Unemployment rate %4,4-4,5.

In this graph it summarizes US Wage and salaries growth,they raise up for a long time.Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index,Cleveland  Consumer Trusting Index have a stabil line,Also they help controlling and dropping unemployment rate.

US inflation;it is so important or can be the most important parameter for an economy.In 2014  Janet YELLEN  said we will a tigh monetary policy.What does it  means? 

1-) NO QE,Ex FED president Ben BERNANKE finished to buy QE

2-)OK No QE means tight monetary policy.1-) Raising Interest Ratings 2-)No cheap money

First  raising interest ratings started in 2015,US 2 years bonds were near 0,1.Now it is %1,26 .Also Inflation is near to 1 now is 2,7.Target was %2,0.

USA Economy grows up.I believe that realistic economy policies are the key of economic strenght and wealth.

UFUKTA NE VAR?

             

Piyasa tekrar hareketlendi USA 2 yıllık faizleri %1,28 yakın biraz sıçrama var.Amerikan Vadeli kontratlarda ve FED başkanlarından açıklamalar geliyor olay şu ki BE READY IN MARCH. Faiz arttırım ihtimali %70 lerde.

   Dolar Endekside çok hareketli Trump Kongre'de konuşmasında pek bir şey söylemedi ama endekse bakın.

         Bizde de biraz hareketlenme oldu  Dolar TL tarafında sebebi yukarda saydığım nedenler de var tabi son bir haftadır ABD verileri iyi geliyor.


Kurda son durum ne ?

3,65-,367 seviyesinde gidip geliyor,FOMC izlemek lazım faiz kararı ne olacak ? 1,7 seviyesinde enflasyon şu an USA'da. hedefe az kaldı Hedef (%2,0).